Democrats Hit The Panic Button On 2024 As Black Voter Turnout Begins To Plummet

As the 2024 presidential election looms, the Democratic Party is grappling with a potential decline in turnout among Black voters, a demographic that has historically been the party’s most loyal constituency. This concern is fueled by a 10 percentage-point drop in Black voter turnout in the 2022 midterms compared to 2018, a more significant decline than any other racial or ethnic group.

Black voters played a pivotal role in delivering the White House to Joe Biden in 2020, and their support will be crucial for his bid for reelection. However, recent polls and interviews reveal a growing disillusionment among this demographic, particularly among younger Black voters and Black men.

W. Mondale Robinson, founder of the Black Male Voter Project, has criticized the Democratic Party for failing to effectively reach out to Black men, who he describes as “sporadic or non-voters.” He argued to The Washington Post that the party should focus more on turning out Black men, viewing them as swing voters who are debating whether to vote or stay home.

“The Democratic Party has been failing epically at reaching this demographic of Black men — and that’s sad to say,” he said. “Black men are your second-most stable base overwhelmingly, and yet you can’t reach them in a way that makes your work easier.”

Over the course of his two years in office, Joe Biden’s approval rating among Black adults has seen a fair amount of fluctuation. According to the most recent poll conducted by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, his current approval rating stands at 58% among Black adults, a significant drop from his initial approval rating, which was supported by approximately 90% of Black adults during his early months in office.

When it comes to the prospect of Biden running for office again in 2024, the Democratic party appears divided. While only about half of the overall Democrats express a desire for Biden to run again, a substantial 81% indicate that they would likely or definitely support him if he were to become the nominee. However, this enthusiasm is less pronounced among Black adults, with only 41% expressing a desire for him to run and a mere 55% indicating that they would likely support him in the general election.

Furthermore, APVoteCast’s comprehensive national survey of the electorate revealed a slight increase in support for Republican candidates among Black voters in the previous year’s elections, despite the fact that this demographic predominantly supported Democrats.

Cedric L. Richmond, a senior adviser at the Democratic National Committee and former adviser to Joe Biden, emphasized the importance of engaging with Black voters in a meaningful way. “We have to meet them where they are and we have to show them why the political process matters and what we have accomplished that benefits them,” Richmond stated.

He further highlighted the intention to clearly demonstrate to Black voters the advantages they have gained from the policies of the Biden administration, a lesson learned from previous Democratic initiatives that didn’t quite hit the mark. Richmond asserted, “We will not make the mistake that others made of not drawing all the connections.”

Ace Conyers, a 22-year-old student at South Carolina State, emphasized the importance of personal connection in the voting process. “For people to vote, and to be eager to vote, you have to actually want to vote for the person,” Conyers stated.

Bailey Scott, a fellow student at the same institution, expressed a lack of enthusiasm about the upcoming 2024 presidential election. She shared, “I’m not excited about voting in the 2024 presidential election because people she would like to see in office won’t be running.”

Scott further elaborated on her voting strategy for the upcoming election, stating, “So I’m just going to have to pick the lesser evil.” She then identified the current administration as her likely choice, adding, “And as of right now, that does seem like Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.”