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JUST IN: 2020’s Top Pollster Releases Jaw-Dropping Data One Week From Election Day

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3 weeks ago

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With just a week left until Election Day, the latest polling from AtlasIntel—the most accurate pollster from the 2020 cycle—reveals a shift in momentum toward former President Donald Trump in critical swing states. According to the data, Trump is now leading Vice President Kamala Harris in several battlegrounds, shaking up what had been a closely contested race.

The swing state polling paints a striking picture of the current landscape. Trump holds a lead in six of the seven states polled, many of which were key to Joe Biden’s 2020 victory. In Arizona, Trump is up by 3.5 points, marking a shift in a state that Biden narrowly won last time. In Georgia, another state that flipped blue in 2020, Trump is ahead by 3.4 points.

Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania—widely viewed as one of the most pivotal states—AtlasIntel has Trump ahead by 2.7 points, signaling potential trouble for Harris in a state that Democrats consider crucial. The margins are narrower in Michigan and Nevada, where Trump leads by 1.2 and 0.9 points.

In Wisconsin, Trump maintains a slim 0.5-point edge, indicating a tight race that could go down to the wire. The only swing state where Harris currently holds a lead is North Carolina, where she is up by just 0.5 points, reflecting the overall competitiveness of the race in this historically red-leaning state.

National polling trends offer a similarly close picture. In a two-way matchup, Trump leads Harris by 1.7 points, with 49.8% support compared to Harris’s 48.1%. The numbers are slightly more favorable to Trump in a full-field scenario, where he holds a 2.5-point lead over Harris, with 49.5% support. Harris trails at 47%, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein is polling at 0.8% and Libertarian Larry Sharpe garners 0.2%. For Harris, the challenge lies not only in cutting into Trump’s leads in key states but also in solidifying her base and persuading undecided voters who could swing the election.

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The Senate race in Arizona is also heating up, with Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake locked in a tight battle. The latest AtlasIntel poll shows Gallego with a narrow 0.5-point lead over Lake, polling at 48.4% compared to Lake’s 47.9%. Other candidates account for 1.2% of the vote. The trajectory of this race has tightened over the past month; Gallego led by 4.1 points on September 27, 3.5 points on October 17, and just 0.5 points as of October 29. Trends have shown that Lake has gained ground in the final days, making Arizona a top Senate race to watch as control of the chamber remains in play.

The broader polling trends suggest that Trump has succeeded in consolidating his base while making inroads with key voter demographics in swing states. Harris, on the other hand, faces the task of re-energizing a Democratic coalition that seems less enthusiastic than in 2020. Democrats have tried to leverage issues like abortion rights and healthcare to energize voters, but the polling data indicates that the economic message—particularly inflation and gas prices—may be resonating more with voters, helping Trump in the final stretch.

It appears that Trump has regained ground in states that were seen as out of reach just months ago, while Harris faces a tougher path to the White House than initially anticipated.

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