Politics
JUST IN: Dems Hit With Brutal Poll In Must-Win Senate Race
Democrats hoping to flip one of the nation’s most closely watched Senate seats just received some unwelcome news, Republican Sen. Susan Collins is refusing to go down without a fight.
A new Suffolk University poll shows the five-term Maine Republican running virtually even with Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, despite Democrats pouring their hopes into a race that could help determine control of the U.S. Senate.
Jackson leads Collins 49% to 47%, a razor-thin two-point advantage that falls comfortably within the survey’s 4.4-percentage-point margin of error.
The findings suggest that Democrats have yet to deliver a knockout blow against Collins, even as President Donald Trump faces underwater approval ratings in the traditionally independent-minded state.
The survey questioned 500 likely voters between Oct. 8 and Oct. 11.
David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University’s Political Research Center, suggested Collins’ political survival instincts may once again be paying off.
“Either through her seniority as senator, her branding as a moderate, or possibly from disgruntled Graham Platner voters who were forced to relinquish his Democratic Party nomination, somehow Collins is starting to erode the Democratic base of Jackson just enough to keep the race close,” Paleologos said.
Suffolk poll · Maine bellwether
Trump +10.5 · pop. 215,000
Senate
🟦 Jackson 47%
🟥 Colllins 46%Susan Collins is overperforming the 2024 presidential margin by roughly 9.5 points in Suffolk’s York County bellwether sample
——
Governor
🟦 Pingree 51%
🟥 Lahn 41% https://t.co/9auG9HRW1V— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 14, 2026
“As of today, the race hasn’t broken open.”
Collins appears to be benefiting from her reputation as an independent Republican, maintaining a narrow advantage among unaffiliated voters while attracting support from some voters dissatisfied with Trump.
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According to the poll, 14% of respondents who disapprove of the president still back Collins.
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She also secured support from 5% of voters who said they backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
Jackson, meanwhile, received support from just one of the 237 respondents who reported voting for Donald Trump.
That crossover support could prove decisive in a state where Collins has repeatedly survived Democratic efforts to unseat her.
The race has taken several unexpected turns, including the July withdrawal of former Democratic contender Graham Platner following allegations of rape and sexual abuse made by a former girlfriend.
Platner denied the accusations, but his departure reshaped the Democratic contest.
Democrats now face a difficult balancing act as they attempt to portray Collins as an ally of Trump while the incumbent emphasizes her willingness to break with the president.
The stakes extend far beyond Maine.
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Democrats must capture four Republican-held Senate seats while defending every seat they currently control to reclaim the chamber.
Recent Suffolk surveys have shown Democrats gaining ground in other competitive states, including Iowa and Michigan, making Collins’ resilience particularly frustrating for a party seeking a path back to power.
The Maine poll also revealed significant voter dissatisfaction with the country’s direction.
Trump received a 37% approval rating against 57% disapproval, while 64% of respondents said the nation was heading in the wrong direction.
Economic concerns remain a major factor, with 58% describing Maine’s economy as poor.
Fuel prices topped voters’ financial worries, particularly in a state where petroleum products are widely used to heat homes during harsh winters.
Despite those unfavorable conditions, Collins remains within striking distance of another Senate victory.
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