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JUST IN: GOP Takes Big Lead In First Election Day Ballots Cast In Must-Win County

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Republicans are swamping Democratic turnout in a must-win Arizona county that appears to be slipping away from Vice President Kamala Harris.

Maricopa County, the site of the contentious 2022 recount that made Kari Lake a household name, is seeing more than two-thirds of Election Day voters coming out for former President Donald Trump, according to Newsmax correspondent Alex Salvi. As of 11:40 a.m. EST, 23,919 Republicans have cast ballots on Election Day, representing 42.5% of the day’s total vote so far. In comparison, just 11,324 Democrats have voted in Maricopa County, home to the capital city of Phoenix, a smidge over 20% of all votes cast Tuesday.

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Before this year, the Sun Belt states were hardly considered to be in play at the presidential level. Arizona went for Trump in 2016 by just over 4% but fell into President Joe Biden’s column four years later. Nevada, which hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 2004, appears to be trending Trump’s way as well, forcing Vice President Harris to double down on Pennsylvania Monday night as she seeks out a narrow path to 270 electoral votes.

In many ways, Arizona has become ground zero for America’s immigration crisis. Perforations along the U.S.-Mexico border have led to an influx of illegal migrants or those granted asylum by the Biden-Harris administration. At the same time, Texas has continued a robust bussing program which has sent its migrant arrivals into other states like Arizona, threatening to overwhelm its shelter system. In May, a poll showed that just 13% of Arizonans believe President Joe Biden would prioritize illegal immigration if reelected.

Kari Lake, the Republican U.S. Senate candidate running with Trump’s endorsement, has made voter dissatisfaction with immigration a key plank in her platform. The strategy appears to be paying off: recent polling has shown her running neck-and-neck with Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego (D-AZ). The same poll, conducted late last month, showed Trump expanding his lead over Harris, which now stands at 49.7% to 41.9%.

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Harris battleground state director Dan Kanninen told NBC News that the campaign is not deprioritizing Arizona in the midst of sagging Democratic turnout. The Harris campaign has insisted it continues to run a seven-state strategy that encompasses all four states as well as Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. “I don’t see a blue wall path or a Sun Belt path or a Southern path. I see seven states that are as close as it gets that will all be decided by margins on the ground,” he said in a recent interview. “And so we built an operation that can win close races on the ground, expecting that. And truthfully, one of the seven has as good a chance as any other to be the tipping-point state.”

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