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JUST IN: Trump-Backed Candidate Erases Polling Deficit In Closely Watched Gubernatorial Race

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2 months ago

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Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican candidate for governor of New Jersey, is statistically tied with U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) as the Democrat hopeful’s campaign struggles to deal with emerging scandals. A new poll from Quantus Insights has Ciattarelli within the margin of error after Sherrill previously led by 10 percentage points on September 5.

According to the most recent survey, Sherrill leads with 48.1 percent of the vote to Ciattarelli’s 45.8 percent among likely voters, just a 2.3 percent margin. The latest result puts Ciattarelli well within the poll’s margin of error of 3.3 percent and represents a massive gain when compared with the outlet’s Labor Day poll, which found Ciattarelli with just 39 percent.

An additional 1.6 percent of respondents said they plan to vote for a third-party candidate, while 4.5 percent remain undecided with just over a month to go until Election Day.

Breaking down the results further, Ciattarelli holds a nine-point polling edge among male respondents while Sherill leads among women by 12. Gender divides have been a common feature of polls in recent years, a trend that has held in the razor close gubernatorial race.

Sherrill leads among voters between the ages of 18-29 by seven percentage points, a modest but not overwhelming advantage, Quantus Insights noted. “Older voters (45–64) lean slightly GOP, but Sherrill holds her own across all age brackets — even the youngest, where support is solid, but not overwhelming,” the outlet wrote in its analysis of the results.

In terms of demographics, Ciattarelli holds a slight advantage among white and Asian voters, while Sherrill dominates among black voters with a 42-point margin. Quantus noted that 15 percent of black respondents remain undecided, however, a significant figure that could indicate low enthusiasm among the demographic.

Sherrill also leads among Hispanic respondents by 24 percentage points. Republicans have enjoyed massive success with Hispanic voters in recent years, though the gains among Puerto Rican and Dominican voting blocs, which make up a sizable percentage of the Hispanic demographic in the Garden State, have been more modest when compared with Cubans, Venezuelans and others.

Among college educated voters, Sherrill holds a decent-sized lead of 11 percentage points while Ciattarelli carried non-college voters by five. “A classic education divide: college voters stay blue; non-college voters lean red. Nothing surprising, but it’s narrowing,” Quantus noted.

In what was arguably the most notable piece of data from the latest survey, Ciattarelli carried independent respondents with 51 percent of the vote to Sherrill’s 38 percent, a staggering 13-point lead. “This is critical: Ciattarelli now leads independents by 13 points. That’s where the shift is coming from. That alone can flip a race under a certain turnout environment,” Quantus wrote.

When asked about key issues, 42 percent of respondents said they want an economic reset, while 34 percent listed rising energy and housing costs as a top concern. Just eight percent of respondents expressed satisfaction with the state’s current approach under incumbent Governor Phil Murphy, a Democrat.

The latest result comes as Sherrill’s campaign struggles to deal with a wide-reaching scandal dating back to her time at the U.S. Naval Academy. According to a bombshell report from the New Jersey Globe, Sherill was barred from walking with her graduating class after being implicated in the scandal.

Sherrill has claimed that she was barred from graduation after failing to report her classmates for participating in the scheme, though she has refused to release her disciplinary records from her time at the academy.

The scandal erupted as the New Jersey gubernatorial race tightens significantly. One recent survey from National Research found Ciattarelli leading 46 percent-45 percent in a two-way race, a figure that includes a 21-point lead among voters not registered with either major party. That poll was followed up by a survey from Emerson College on Wednesday, which found the race tied.

The recent spate of polls showing a razor close race come after Sherill held a sizable 8.8 percent lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average last week, which has since declined to just above six percent.

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