NEW: Democrats Get Brutal Surprise In Must-Win House Race

Democrats are facing a nail-biter in one of the country’s most important House battlegrounds, with a new poll showing Republican challenger John Braun narrowly ahead of Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District.

The survey, conducted by nonpartisan DHM Research for Oregon Public Broadcasting, found Braun leading Gluesenkamp Perez 46% to 44% among likely voters.

The two-point advantage falls within the poll’s 4.2-point margin of error, making the contest a statistical dead heat with less than five weeks remaining before Election Day.

Another 11% of likely voters initially said they were undecided.

When pollsters pressed those voters to say which candidate they were leaning toward, Braun remained narrowly ahead, 48% to 47%, while 5% remained unsure.

The poll surveyed 543 likely voters between Sept. 17 and 27.

“It’s a closely contested district independent of the candidates or the political environment,” said Horvick, a senior vice president at DHM, which conducted the poll for OPB.

Washington’s 3rd District is one of the most closely watched House races in the country and could play a role in determining which party controls the chamber after November.

The Cook Political Report currently rates the race a toss-up. The district itself has a slight Republican lean and backed President Donald Trump in the last three presidential elections, all by single-digit margins.

Washington’s 3rd congressional district

🔴 John Braun: 48%
🔵 MGP (Inc): 47%

This would be a 🔵 D -> 🔴 R Flip

DMH Research poll | 9/17-9/27 pic.twitter.com/CQk87L6sXV

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 1, 2026

Gluesenkamp Perez, however, captured the congressional seat in 2022 and successfully defended it in 2024.

Braun, the Republican leader in the Washington state Senate, is endorsed by Donald Trump and is attempting to return the district to GOP hands.

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Horvick said Braun presents a different challenge for Democrats than former Republican nominee Joe Kent, who lost to Gluesenkamp Perez twice.

“I feel like these two forces are bumping up against each other…resulting in what looks like it’ll be a very close election,” he said.

The economy and cost of living are dominating voters’ concerns.

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Every likely voter surveyed said the economy and cost of living were either “very important” or “somewhat important” when deciding how to vote.

Healthcare and homelessness were each considered important by 89% of respondents, while crime, education and foreign policy also ranked highly.

The electorate’s broader mood was grim.

Eighty-eight percent of likely voters said they had little or no confidence that elected officials in Washington would make progress on the issues that matter most to them.

The poll also found 91% believe finding affordable housing is difficult, while 80% said children growing up in Washington today will be worse off as adults than people are now.

Braun’s campaign seized on the results.

“This poll confirms what we already know: it’s a tight race,” the Braun campaign said in a statement to OPB. “We’re doing everything we can to show the voters that John Braun shares their values and will protect their paychecks.”

Gluesenkamp Perez’s campaign blamed the tightening contest in part on a surge of Republican-aligned outside spending.

No Going Back PAC Inc., a super PAC tied to Trump, has spent about $1.7 million in the race, compared with roughly $354,000 in outside spending from Democratic groups as of Wednesday.

“Grassroots-funded candidates like Marie can’t match that kind of spending,” Gowan said in a statement. “We’re seeing the same pattern in battleground districts across the country, where polls are tightening under a wave of nearly unlimited outside money.”

With control of the House potentially hanging on a handful of competitive districts, Washington’s 3rd is shaping up to be exactly what both parties feared: a race that could come down to the wire.

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