NEW: GOP Candidate Surges Ahead In Deep Blue Gubernatorial Race: ‘She Has A Chance’

Republican Christine Drazan has edged ahead of Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek in a new Oregon gubernatorial poll, setting up a tight rematch less than two months before voters head to the polls.

The Oregon Voter Sentiment Survey, conducted by DHM Research and commissioned by Grow Oregon, found Drazan at 45% and Kotek at 43% among likely voters.

Third-party candidate Brett Smith registered 4% support.

The survey included 600 likely Oregon voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, meaning the two-point difference between Drazan and Kotek falls within the poll’s margin of error.

Political analyst Dana Haynes said the numbers show another competitive contest after Drazan came within four percentage points of Kotek in 2022.

“Drazan has run before. She knows how to run statewide. We thought this was going to be a tight race. Honestly, she has a puncher’s chance. She could actually become the next Republican after Vic Atiyeh to hold that office. I don’t think it’s hers in the bag yet. But I think she’s going to make a heck of a race out of it,” political analyst Dana Haynes said.

The survey also found significant dissatisfaction with Kotek’s job performance, with nearly 60% of respondents disapproving and saying the state is on the wrong track.

Drazan’s campaign seized on the numbers, arguing that voters are frustrated over affordability, housing, education and other longstanding problems.

2026 Oregon Governor Race

🔴 Christine Drazan 45%
🔵 Tina Kotek (inc): 43%

DHM Research poll | 9/11 pic.twitter.com/U2g05yonTA

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) September 15, 2026

“Christine is earning the trust of Oregonians because she’s giving them a reason to believe Oregon can do better, not just blaming someone else. Four years ago, Tina Kotek made big promises on homelessness, housing, education, and affordability, but today, Oregonians are paying more, getting less, and watching the same problems get worse. This poll confirms what we already see on the ground: Oregonians are ready for change, and they see Christine as the leader who can deliver it,” said Trey Rosser, Drazan campaign strategist.

Kotek’s campaign pushed back, pointing to undecided voters and framing the election as a choice over the direction of the state and its relationship with the Trump administration..

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“There are still a lot of voters who are undecided in this race, but the choice couldn’t be any clearer: Christine Drazan is ready to open the door to Trump’s agenda and Governor Kotek is fighting every day to protect Oregonians from federal overreach and harm.”

The poll found affordability, education and housing among the biggest concerns for Oregon voters.

DHM Research’s recent polling has separately found continuing concern among Oregonians about housing affordability, homelessness, the cost of living and government management. The firm describes itself as an independent, nonpartisan research organization based in Oregon.

Drazan and Kotek have been here before.

Kotek defeated Drazan in the 2022 governor’s race by less than four percentage points, making this year’s contest a rematch between two candidates already familiar to voters statewide.

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