Politics
NEW: GOP Expands Turnout In Razor Close Gubernatorial Race
Republicans have experienced a significant bump in early voting requests in New Jersey, the site of arguably the most closely watched race in the country as Trump-backed candidate Jack Ciattarelli seeks to pull off a massive upset over U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-VA).
According to data collected by Decision Desk data analyst Michael Pruser, Republicans are expected to expand their current turnout rate while Democrats will pick up raw returns. While the GOP has seen a sizable rise in voter registrations, New Jersey is still an overwhelmingly blue state where Democrats hold a massive lead in registrations.
Pruser further noted that in today’s report, Republicans had more single-use requests than Democrats for the first time since early voting began.
“No surprises in any of this so far, the expectation is still that Democrats will begin returning mail at a higher rate,” Pruser posted on X, noting that Republicans will “expand their edge” over the next few reports. Ultimately, however, Democrats are expected to end the early voting period with an edge of roughly 240,000 ballots, suggesting that Republicans have work to do in order to feel comfortable about flipping the seat.
How does the projected 240k (D) absentee edge in 2025 compare to their final absentee advantage in 2021? 2021 numbers may have been still influenced by Covid.
— Horatius (@TheBridge1971) October 2, 2025
Ciattarelli has recently enjoyed a significant bump in polling while Sherrill seeks to mitigate the damage from a cheating scandal dating back to her time at the U.S. Naval Academy.
According to a bombshell report from the New Jersey Globe, Sherill was barred from walking with her graduating class after being implicated in the scandal. Sherrill has claimed that she was barred from graduation after failing to report her classmates for participating in the scheme, though she has refused to release her disciplinary records from her time at the academy.
One recent poll from Quantus Insights found Sherrill leading by two percentage points with an additional six percent of respondents remaining undecided. This marks a massive increase for Ciattarelli when compared with the outfit’s Labor Day poll, which found Sherrill leading by 10.
Another recent survey from National Research found Ciattarelli leading 46 percent-45 percent in a two-way race, a figure that includes a 21-point lead among voters not registered with either major party. That poll was followed up by a survey from Emerson College last Wednesday, which found the race tied.
