New York Times Sounds The Alarm: Biden Is Rapidly Losing Non-White Support To Trump

A new report from the New York Times has highlighted a significant erosion in support for President Joe Biden among non-white voters. According to a compilation of New York Times/Siena College national polls from 2022 and 2023, Biden’s lead over former President Donald Trump among registered non-white voters stands at just 53% to 28%.

This data, which encompasses over 1,500 non-white respondents, indicates a sharp decline in Biden’s support compared to 2020 when he secured more than 70% of the non-white vote.

If Biden cannot rejuvenate this dwindling support by November 2024, it will perpetuate a decade-long trend of diminishing Democratic strength among a demographic traditionally viewed as the bedrock of the party. The data suggests that Biden’s lukewarm support from these voters is a significant factor in the neck-and-neck race in early national surveys. This is despite Biden maintaining his appeal among white voters at levels comparable to four years ago.

The Times’ data offers a glimmer of hope for Biden though, suggesting that he could potentially approach his 2020 standing by winning back voters who previously supported him. However, the Democratic party cannot afford to be complacent. Over the past decade, Democrats have seen a consistent decline in support from non-white voters, even amidst racially charged debates ranging from border walls to national anthem protests.

Several factors contribute to Biden’s vulnerabilities. His age, the prevailing inflation rates, and other socio-economic challenges that disproportionately affect non-white voters, who tend to be younger and less affluent than their white counterparts. The president’s approval rating among non-white voters over the past year is a mere 47%, with a favorability rating of just 54%.

Furthermore, issues like abortion and threats to democracy might resonate less with Black and Hispanic voters, who are generally more conservative than white Biden supporters. Economic challenges also play a role, with Biden underperforming most significantly among non-white voters earning less than $100,000 annually.

The data also reveals an emerging education gap among non-white voters. Biden retains a 61-23 lead among non-white college graduates but has a narrower 49-31 lead among those without a four-year degree. This disparity suggests that the political realignment triggered by Trump’s conservative populism is beginning to influence the political affiliations of working-class voters across all racial backgrounds.

Biden’s waning support is not limited to a specific demographic or racial group. He leads with 72-11 among Black voters and 47-35 among Hispanic registrants. However, these figures are significantly lower than his 2020 election performance.

The generational divide is particularly pronounced among Black voters. While Black registered voters over 45 support Biden with an 83-8 margin, this lead shrinks to 59-14 among Black respondents under 45. This trend underscores the potential for low turnout among Black and Hispanic voters in the upcoming elections, rather than a massive shift towards Trump.

While Biden still holds a lead among non-white voters, the diminishing margins are a cause for concern for the Democratic party. If these trends persist, the 2024 elections could see the weakest performance by a Democratic leader among Black and Hispanic voters since Walter Mondale in 1984 according to the NYT.