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Top Pollster In Disbelief Over Stunning Data From Pennsylvania: ‘These Numbers Are Real?’

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4 weeks ago

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Vote-by-mail numbers coming out of Pennsylvania are indicating that Vice President Kamala Harris is in trouble, with one pollster who reacted in total disbelief.

Heading into Election Day, Democrats were expecting a net lead of 50,000 votes but instead lead by just over 2,400 after Monday’s vote-by-mail ballots were counted, according to Pittsburg political consultant Mark Davin Harris. “PA VBM update – Strong update today. Dems only squeak out 2,411 net votes. Starting to really run out of ramp. GOP likely to take over the return rate lead,” he wrote on X, clarifying that the 50,000 vote lead was supposed to encompass just Monday’s count, not all pre-Election Day ballots. “To be clear 2,411 for the day. Bringing to 413k total.”

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Rich Baris, president of Florida-based Big Data Poll, couldn’t believe was he was reading. “Mark, these numbers are real? Not a reporting error?” he replied. “I’m serious, not an error?” Pollsters for weeks have struggled to predict whether Pennsylvania will go for Harris or former President Donald Trump, and Tuesday’s vote-by-mail results are the most positive sign yet for the former president. FiveThirtyEight gives Harris the slimmest of leads in polling averages, but the two most recent surveys performed Sunday and Monday show Trump leading by 1 point.

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Other indicators of a Pennsylvania victory by Trump has appeared in recent weeks. A sudden surge in enthusiasm for the Republican among Latino voters was reported by Politico on Monday. Known for his traditionally strong appeal among blue-collar, white voters, Trump is now making significant inroads with the Latino communities of cities like Reading, a region where Democrats historically held an advantage. Trump’s campaign strategy focuses heavily on the Latino population in Pennsylvania, targeting areas with high concentrations of Puerto Rican and Dominican residents. In Reading, where Latinos make up nearly 69 percent of the population, Trump’s ground team is taking proactive steps to engage with the community, including opening a “Latino Americans for Trump” office in the city center.

During early voting, a heated blame game took place among Harris staff and supporters around the campaign’s Philadelphia strategy. Democratic elected officials and junior staffers cited the hiring of campaign manager Nikki Liu, a Pittsburg native who they said lacked the street-level knowledge to turn out low-propensity Harris voters in key areas of the city. “I have concerns about Nikki Liu,” said Ryan Boyer, head of the city’s influential building trades council and the foremost voice on labor issues in the capital city. “I don’t think she understands Philadelphia.”

Junior U.S. Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) enraged Democrats earlier this summer when he boldly predicted that President Trump would carry the state, citing enthusiasm he is seeing among white working-class Pennsylvanians. “I think if you match up Trump with Harris, and I think that’s what this is really about, and I do believe he’s going to win Pennsylvania. And I do believe it’s going to be close, but whether it’s Biden, whether it was Clinton, or whether it was with Vice President Harris I think it’s going to be very close,” he told an interviewer in August.

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