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‘Why Run If You Can’t Win?’: Popular GOP Governor Scathes Non-Trump Candidates

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1 year ago

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Governor Kristi Noem (R-SD) was asked about her thoughts on the current crowded landscape of the Republican primary by Fox News. She responded by observing that Trump’s massive lead in the polls has already shown that the race is decided and that it does not make sense from a winning prospect for other candidates to remain in the race so long as Trump does.

“The fact is, none of them can win as long as Trump’s in the race. And that’s just the facts. So why run if you can’t win?” said Governor Noem. Noem has not yet endorsed any presidential candidate but promised that “you’ll hear something from me” regarding an endorsement. She was also asked whether she would be Trump’s vice presidential running mate. She responded, “You know, he hasn’t asked me, so we’ll cross that bridge — we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it. I don’t really answer hypotheticals.”

Trump currently enjoys a huge 38-point average lead in the polls according to RealClearPolitics and has already polled (on average) at 53.9 percent. However, even if a non-Trump candidate like Ron DeSantis (R-FL) won, several pollsters have pointed out that there is a huge “Trump or Bust” vote that will simply not come out for any other Republican.

The pollster, Richard Baris, who first studied this demographic and coined the term, has commented that “It’s not mathematically possible [for DeSantis to win the general election without the MAGA vote] AND the reason is what we’ve been focusing on all year. The ‘Trump OR Bust’ vote is bigger than the NeverTrump (all parties) vote.”

Similar points that Governor Noem made about this race already being decided when one looks at historic metrics were also made by Richard Baris.

“I keep seeing/hearing claims like, ‘Polls are the only metric showing Trump is ahead. He’s behind on all other campaign metrics.’ That is, 100%, false. It’s getting old. First, polling. There’s nothing wrong with it. He’s ahead by historical margins. Let’s move on. Second, endorsements. As much as I hate to say it, there’s a reason 538 ‘scores’ endorsements,” wrote Baris.

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He elaborated, writing, “They are weighting them based on predictive value. The research via the ‘party decides’ shows very clearly that only nationally held offices and gubernatorial offices have predictive value. All the state endorsements DeSantis influencers keep touting, mean basically nothing.”

Baris also added that “This research failed at first in 2016, because Trump broke the rules. Also, we just didn’t see numbers in 2016 like we see in 2024. Eventually, they did fall in line and he won. By the endorsement metric, Trump is WAY ahead of everyone. 67 to 5 in the House, 10 to ZERO in the Senate, and 2 to 1 and 1 in gubernatorial endorsements. It’s actually not close, at all.”



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