JUST IN: New Poll Shows Top Democrat Senator On Track To Lose In 2026

A new poll spells bad news for Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) as he gears up for re-election in 2026. The survey, conducted by Tyson Group, tested the Georgia Democrat against three potential Republican challengers—Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA), Rep. Buddy Carter (R-GA), and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA). The results indicate Ossoff faces a tough road ahead, particularly in a head-to-head race against the popular governor.

The poll, conducted in January, shows Ossoff trailing Gov. Kemp by 7 points, a significant warning sign for Democrats hoping to maintain control of the seat.

In a direct matchup, Kemp leads Ossoff 49% to 42%, with 8% still undecided. The Republican governor, who has maintained strong popularity in Georgia, performs well among White voters (71%), older voters (66% among those 75 and older), and Republicans (91%).

Ossoff, meanwhile, continues to dominate among African American voters (80%) and younger voters aged 18-29 (54%). However, his struggles with moderate and independent voters are glaring. Kemp claims 32% of independent voters compared to Ossoff’s 49%, leaving a sizable 17% still undecided.

ATLANTA, GEORGIA – NOVEMBER 02, 2024: US senior senator from Georgia, Jon Ossoff, attends US Vice President Kamala Harris, the 2024 Democratic Party nominee’s rally in Atlanta, Georgia.

The governor’s strong numbers suggest that if he enters the race, he would be a formidable contender capable of flipping the seat red.

via Tyson Group

Ossoff performs slightly better when matched up against Rep. Buddy Carter and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, but the results still raise concerns for Democrats. Against Carter, Ossoff leads 47% to 39%, with 13% undecided. While this margin appears more favorable for the incumbent senator, the high number of undecided voters means the race remains volatile.

The most striking result, however, comes in the Ossoff-Greene matchup. Ossoff holds a 51% to 39% advantage over the firebrand congresswoman, with 9% undecided.

The poll also shows the impact of President Donald Trump in Georgia. Trump maintains a 49% approval rating, with 45% disapproving, giving him a net +4 approval rating. His strongest support comes from older voters, with 67% of those aged 75 and older backing him.

Meanwhile, Ossoff’s path to re-election could likely depend on how Trump’s influence shapes the Republican primary. While Kemp remains a widely respected figure in Georgia, both Carter and Greene have aligned themselves more closely with Trump’s populist movement.

Atlanta, GA – February 6th 2024: Governor Brian Kemp participates in a interview, after a legislative breakfast held by the GHCC.

Perhaps the most alarming statistic for Ossoff is his favorability rating, which lags behind other key Georgia figures. The poll found:

• Brian Kemp: 43% favorable, 40% unfavorable
• Stacey Abrams: 36% favorable, 52% unfavorable
• Jon Ossoff: 25% favorable, 13% unfavorable
• Marjorie Taylor Greene: 31% favorable, 26% unfavorable

Ossoff’s 25% favorability rating is strikingly low for an incumbent senator, signaling potential voter dissatisfaction.

Throughout the late 19th and early 20th centuries, Georgia remained a Democratic stronghold, with senators like Tom Watson. The late 20th century marked a political shift in Georgia, with Republican Paul Coverdell winning a Senate seat in 1993—the first Republican senator from Georgia since Reconstruction.

This signaled the beginning of the state’s transition away from its Democratic roots. Zell Miller, a Democrat who served from 2000 to 2005, famously aligned with Republican policies on several issues, including his endorsement of George W. Bush in 2004.

While Democrats have carried Georgia in the last two Senate elections, this poll suggests that Ossoff faces an uphill battle in 2026. If Kemp runs, Republicans have a strong chance of flipping the seat. Even against Carter, the race remains highly competitive.