Trump-Backed Candidate Surges To Lead In Key Senate Primary

A new poll from Quantus Insights found Trump-backed candidate Julia Letlow — who is running to unseat incumbent Senator Bill Cassidy in Louisiana’s Republican Senate primary —  leading the field while the incumbent trails in a distant third.

The poll, which comes just one week before primary election day, surveyed 1,015likely Republican primary voters, with an effective sample size of 1,012 after weighting. It reported a weighted margin of error of +/- 3 percent and measured a multi-candidate field that included Letlow, Cassidy, state Treasurer John Fleming and Mark Spencer.

In the primary ballot test, Letlow commanded a first-place lead with 41.6 percent support, while Fleming followed at 29.6 percent. The incumbent Cassidy — who notably voted to convict President Donald Trump in his 2020 impeachment trial — trailed in third place with 19.6 percent of the vote.

An additional 1.7 percent of respondents expressed a preference for Spencer, while just 7.5 percent indicated that they remain undecided down the stretch.

These figures reflect a shift from Quantus Insights’ prior survey of the same electorate back in February. In that earlier poll, Fleming led with 34.2 percent, Letlow stood at 24.6 percent, Cassidy registered 19.8 percent, and more than 20 percent of respondents were undecided.

Between the two surveys, Letlow’s support increased by approximately 17 percentage points, Fleming’s support declined by roughly 5 points, Cassidy’s support remained essentially unchanged, and the share of undecided voters decreased substantially.

Between the two surveys, Letlow’s support increased by approximately 17 percentage points, while Fleming’s support declined by roughly 5 points and Cassidy’s support remained largely unchanged. The share of undecided voters also declined significantly.

Credit: Congressional office of Rep. Julia Letlow

The May survey also tested hypothetical runoff scenarios. In a matchup between Letlow and Cassidy, Letlow led comfortably with 63 percent of the vote to the incumbent’s 23.4 percent, with an additional 13.6 percent remaining undecided. In a matchup between Fleming and Cassidy, Fleming led 55.1 percent to 24.6 percent.

A hypothetical runoff between Letlow and Fleming polled much more competitively, though Letlow still maintained a lead with 45.4 percent to 39.6 percent for Fleming. An additional 15 percent of likely Republican voters indicated that remain undecided in a this scenario.

When respondents were asked which candidate appeared to have the most momentum in their local area, 33.5 percent named Letlow, 21.2 percent named Fleming, and 11.2 percent named Cassidy. Nearly one-third of respondents indicated they were unsure.

The survey captured additional information on voter attitudes and subgroup preferences. Overall, 61.3 percent of respondents strongly approved of President Trump’s performance, 22.3 percent somewhat approved, and 15.3 percent disapproved. In terms of political identity, 37.9 percent described themselves as strongly aligned with the MAGA or America First movement, 16.6 percent as generally aligned with MAGA principles, and 26.1 percent as traditional conservative Republicans.

Subgroup analysis showed variation in support levels. Among voters identifying as MAGA-aligned, Letlow received 49.3 percent and Fleming 32.7 percent. Among those strongly aligned with the MAGA or America First movement, Letlow’s support reached 52.4 percent and Fleming’s 31.2 percent.

Letlow also held a lead among those who strongly approved of President Trump, securing 50.9 percent of the vote to Fleming’s 31.9 percent.

The poll was released one week before Louisiana Republicans were scheduled to vote in the primary election on May 16,

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